I thought I would report here what this years survival probabilities look like. The situation is quite
different than last year, when Kentucky was the overwhelming favorite. This year there is a quite
close race with three teams: Kansas, MSU, and UNC all above 0.10 probability of winning it all,
with 0.16, 0.12, 0.11 respectively. This is based on my 1000 simulations of the tournament with
my standard QR model, just like last year when Kentucky was at 0.40. Here is a Tufte type
spark lines graphic with this years survival functions.
This year we have also posted a new bracket generator at
http://www.econ.uiuc.edu:8080/QBracketology/
that can be used to generate a random bracket according to this year's fitted model. Thanks to
Ignacio Sarmiento Barbieri for help with the R shiny implementation of this. Further details
about the methods underlying all of this are available here:
http://www.econ.uiuc.edu/~roger/research/bracketology/MM.html
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