Wednesday, December 7, 2022

 I've been reading about the Rasch model of item response in educational testing, in preparation for writing a brief section about it for the empirical Bayes book.  Eventually, I recalled that Edgeworth had an amusing paper about this sort of thing, from which I quote the final paragraph.


To examiners at least it will be interesting to test the accuracy of the instrument with which they work. The statistical study may beguile the monotony of their task. The " charm severe of numbers " is celebrated by Wordsworth as


                    "Especially perceived when nature droops 

                     And feeling is suppressed." 


The poet is evidently describing in prophetic words words the condition of examiners, and prescribing their solace. More tropically another inspired bard has indicated the paregoric use of an interest in statistics. In one of the beautiful pictures with which Homer has adorned the shield of Achilles, the ploughman of the good old times, as he finishes each furrow, and turns to begin a new one, is presented with a refreshing cup of honey-sweet wine. So they who plough in the modern metaphorical sense, may, in the pauses of their labours, be refreshed with the cup of statistical science, which I have endeavoured to sweeten. 


F.Y. Edgeworth (1890) The Element of Chance in Competitive Examinations, JRSS, 664-663.

Wednesday, August 10, 2022

Poetry makes nothing happen

 Peter Hull posted on twitter this fragment from a paper by Don Rubin  that perfectly encapsulates the W.H. Auden maxim:  Poetry makes nothing happen.  

http://www.asasrms.org/Proceedings/y1975/Bayesian%20Inference%20for%20Causality%20-%20The%20Importance%20of%20Randomization.pdf




Sunday, May 15, 2022

Almost a Haiku

" Good sense is dead, its child, science killed it to find out how it was made."

From the novel, Innocence by Penelope Fitzgerald, the phrase is attributed to Antonio Gramsci..


Innocence  is a truly brilliant novel, with a sensibility somewhere between Jane Austen and Henry James.  It is strange that someone, preferably Paolo Sorrentino, hasn't made a movie of this novel.