It is organized a little differently than the usual bracket picking, which made it more fun to

prepare an entry. You are given a budget of 100 units, and you must pick a subset of teams

as many as you want subject to the budget constraint: Teams seeded 1 cost 25, 2 cost 19, ...

16 seeds cost 1. I simulated 10,000 brackets, and recorded the survival probabilities as in

the earlier survival plot on this blog, and then computed the expected number of wins for

each team, normalized by their cost, ordered the teams and produced the following list of

teams. The winner is the entry whose teams accumulate the largest number of wins.

EWins Seeds Cost Bang CumCost CumEWins

Gonzaga 1.1619 11 4 0.2904750 4 1.1619

Pittsburgh 0.9041 10 4 0.2260250 8 2.0660

Cincinnati 1.0757 9 5 0.2151400 13 3.1417

Iowa 1.6385 7 8 0.2048125 21 4.7802

Syracuse 0.8112 10 4 0.2028000 25 5.5914

VA Commonwealth 0.7855 10 4 0.1963750 29 6.3769

West Virginia 2.4625 3 13 0.1894231 42 8.8394

Duke 2.2013 4 12 0.1834417 54 11.0407

Purdue 1.9888 5 11 0.1808000 65 13.0295

Connecticut 0.9040 9 5 0.1808000 70 13.9335

Butler 0.8602 9 5 0.1720400 75 14.7937

Indiana 1.8908 5 11 0.1718909 86 16.6845

Texas A&M 1.8507 3 13 0.1423615 99 18.5352